NOTE:This blog was written with the help of CHATGPT to provide specific threat Matrix Details
What is a Threat Matrix?
A threat matrix (also commonly called a risk assessment matrix or threat-risk matrix) is a visual tool used in security, risk management, cybersecurity, military/intelligence, and project management to evaluate and prioritize potential threats. In this case I am applying it to emergency events.
It typically plots threats on a grid based on two main factors:
- Likelihood (or Probability): How likely the threat is to occur.
- Impact (or Severity): How damaging the threat would be if it happens.
The result is often color-coded (like a "heat map") — e.g., red for high-risk areas, yellow for medium, green for low — to help teams quickly see what needs the most attention. In the self-reliance context, it is a good idea to list the top emergency events. Then go through the list to decide the probability and severity to your specific situation. It is a way to plan and strategize possible remedies you can take now if the event happens.
AI chatbots are a good way to get generic information and then drill down on specifics with subsequent queries. Here is an example session where ChatGPT came up with a list of threats for an individual living in New York City.
"Build a threat matrix of the top 10 emergency events, the probability and the impact for a person living in New York City"
NYC Emergency Threat Matrix — Top 10
Rank | Emergency Event | Probability | Impact | Overall Risk | Why it matters |
1 | 🌡️ Extreme Heat / Heat Wave | Very High | High | 🔴 Critical | NYC identifies extreme heat as its deadliest weather emergency, with 500+ premature deaths associated with heat annually. |
2 | 🌧️ Flash Flooding / Extreme Rain | Very High | High | 🔴 Critical | Heavy rain can overwhelm drainage systems rapidly, flooding streets, basements, subway areas and low-lying locations. |
3 | ⚡ Power Outage / Utility Failure | High | High | 🔴 Critical | Loss of electricity can mean loss of elevators, refrigeration, heating/AC, communications and electrically powered equipment. |
4 | 🌀 Hurricane / Coastal Storm / Nor'easter | Medium–High | Very High | 🔴 Critical | Coastal storms can combine flooding, storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rain, infrastructure damage and prolonged outages. |
5 | ❄️ Winter Storm / Extreme Cold | High | High | 🟠 High | Snow, ice and extreme cold can disrupt transportation, heating, power and emergency services. |
6 | 🦠 Disease Outbreak / Pandemic | Medium | High | 🟠 High | NYC's population density and extensive public transportation can allow contagious diseases to spread rapidly. NYC includes disease outbreaks in its official hazard plan. |
7 | 🔥 Major Building Fire | High | Very High | 🟠 High | Dense residential buildings, high-rise living and limited evacuation routes can make a serious fire particularly dangerous. |
8 | 💨 Severe Thunderstorm / High Wind / Tornado | Medium–High | Medium–High | 🟠 High | Severe storms can produce damaging winds, lightning, hail, falling trees, power-line failures and occasionally, tornadoes. |
9 | 🌎 Earthquake | Low–Medium | Very High | 🟡 Moderate–High | Earthquakes are less frequent than weather emergencies but can cause significant structural and infrastructure damage. NYC officially identifies earthquakes as a hazard. |
10 | 🏗️ Major Infrastructure / Transportation Failure | Medium | High | 🟡 Moderate–High | A major subway, bridge, tunnel, communications, water or transportation failure could strand large numbers of residents and disrupt daily life. NYC's hazard planning includes infrastructure failures. |
Now that we know the top 10 Emergency Situations our mythical New Yorker will face, let's come up with some plans to increase their Self-Reliance possibilities. Each plan is going to reflect decisions you need to make in response to each event.
First Decision - Shelter in Place or Get out of Dodge (bugout)
Shelter in place option
Going by the Event Rank above Numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10 are your best shelter in place options
1. Being sheltered from the sun and outdoors is safer than sweating it out indoors as long as you have power (for AC or fans) and running water for cooling and hydration.
2. Unless you are living in a ground floor or basement apartment it is better staying indoors during storms. Being wet and cold is a sure recipe for exposure and hypothermia. Danger from lightning, falling or blowing objects or being swept away are another small but possible outcomes.
3. Depends upon the season, but in general staying indoors can be protection enough rather than dealing with whatever is happening outside. Also power outages provide opportunity for the more criminally minded to cause havoc. Police and emergency services will already be stressed and unable to respond to your emergency.
4. Again depends. If you live in a coastal flood zone their may be mandatory evacuations ordered. Again, sheltering in place may provide the best outcome. Event numbers 2 & 3 may also be in effect.
5. You want to avoid exposure to the elements. In some cases large snowfalls may cut off neighborhoods from access. You will need ways to keep warm especially if this event occurs with number 3
8. As with any severe storm staying sheltered is your best chance at having a positve outcome. Tornadoes are generally rare in urban settings, but if there is a storm shelter available take it.
9. Earthquakes in NYC and surrounding areas are rare and generally mild. A couple of seconds of shaking and most people go "What was that??" In the event of severe property damage a mandatory evacuation may be implemented.
10. This effects whether you have the chance to leave the area or not. NYC proper relies on mass transit to move the millions of residents from Point A to Point B. Staying put is the logical choice when there is no way to get anywhere else. Even if there was a way chances are thousands are already trying to use it.
Get out of Dodge(G.O.O.D.) option
Going by the Event Rank above Numbers 6, 7 are your best G.O.O.D.options
6. When COVID was raging, the world sheltered in place and locked down. Fortunately, the pandemic was not the deadly scourge it was hyped up to be. Though a lot of people died, mostly in hospitals and other medical facilites, the majority of those infected suffered a bad flu for about a week. The thing about Disease Outbreaks and Pandemics is that when you find out how bad it REALLY is, it is probably too late to get out of the area. Population dense urban areas are where most pandemics run rampant.
Getting out of Dodge means getting to a less dense, less populous area. Getting out early means you are less likely joining a stream of refugees heading to the suburbs or rural areas. If you wait too long you may be faced with sheltering in place and hoping for the best.
7. In the event of fire, you will be forced to flee the immediate area. Fire always has the chance of spreading. Avoid hoping for the best, grab your stuff and G.O.O.D.
Now that we know what emergency events are possible, we know what to prepare for. That will be the topic of the next blog post.
Until Next Time -- Be Ready!
J.R.
